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Your odds of finding a 100-year-old message in a bottle: 1 in 8 million

Ellsworth Toohey
Apr 15, 2026
∙ Paid

Dmitry Kalinovsky/shutterstock.com

With 8 billion people on Earth, mathematician Kevin Burke calculates that any one person’s chances of stumbling across a century-old message in a bottle are about 1 in 8 million. The calculation takes just two steps, as Burke explains in The Conversation.

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