Trump’s tariff “dividend” plan: spend imaginary money, break actual law

Mugshots of Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump

Stable genius Donald Trump’s latest idea for economic relief sounds simple enough: take the billions supposedly pouring in from his tariffs and hand every middle- and lower-income American a $2,000 “dividend.” Unfortunately, experts say there’s one tiny snag: the money doesn’t actually exist.

“Even with the most conservative estimates applied to it, it doesn’t work,” said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the right-leaning Tax Foundation.

By her math, if the rebates went to people making under $100,000 per year, that would cost way more than the amount of revenue tariffs will bring in.

“So you’ll see at least a $100 billion gap there between what we can expect the tariffs to generate for the U.S. government versus what the president is promising to spend on tariff rebates for American citizens.”

She added that even if the money went out only to people making $75,000 or less annually, there still wouldn’t be enough revenue, by her calculations.

NPR

Economists say Trump’s “tariff rebate” fantasy would cost at least $100 billion more than tariffs bring in, meaning his plan to pay down the debt would instead balloon it. Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has admitted the administration might not send out any checks at all, hinting instead at tax tweaks already passed earlier this year. Meanwhile, Trump’s own lawyers just told the Supreme Court tariffs aren’t about raising revenue. The Orange Menace, however, is bragging about all the revenue he isn’t actually raising.