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The overdose spike that alarmed NPR was a model trained on old data

Ellsworth Toohey
Apr 14, 2026
∙ Paid

Badon Hill Studio / shutterstock.com

In June 2025, federal data suggested US drug overdose deaths had suddenly surged in January, reversing a decline that had been going on for well over a year. NPR covered it. Public health officials were alarmed. Some people wondered if the Trump administration was monkeying with the numbers. According to a new analysi…

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