Polymarket refuses to pay $10.5 million in Venezuela “invasion” bets
Polymarket is refusing to settle approximately $10.5 million in bets on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela, arguing that the military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro doesn’t count as an “invasion.” According to the Financial Times, the prediction market claims the contract specifically required “US military operations intended to establish control” over Venezuelan territory, and a “snatch-and-extract” mission followed by diplomatic engagements doesn’t meet that standard.
Traders are furious. “That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd,” one user wrote. Another called the platform “Polyscam,” posting: “Polymarket has degenerated into sheer arbitrary judgment. Words are redefined at will, detached from any accepted meaning.”
The dispute comes alongside suspicious trading activity that’s drawn congressional attention. One account placed 13 bets totaling about $34,000 between December 27 and January 3 — all related to whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela or remove Maduro. By Sunday, that account had raked in over $409,000. Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to propose legislation barring insiders from trading on prediction market contracts tied to sensitive political or military events.
Prediction markets have been pitched as superior to polls and pundits for forecasting real-world events. That claim gets harder to defend when the house can apparently decide after the fact what counts as an “invasion.”
Give it a couple weeks an any doubt of "invasion" will be removed.
Now, what to bet on that will be the first thing T-bag puts his name on.
Several members of the US regime have claimed that we are now in control of the Venezuelan government. But I guess until the UN certifies it, no go.
Yep, this is why the house always wins.