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Polymarket refuses to pay $10.5 million in Venezuela “invasion” bets

Ellsworth Toohey
Jan 07, 2026
∙ Paid

Polymarket Prediction Market (PJ McDonnell/shutterstock.com)

Polymarket is refusing to settle approximately $10.5 million in bets on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela, arguing that the military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro doesn’t count as an “invasion.” According to the Financial Times, the prediction market claims the contract specifically…

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